A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BITCOIN AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: A QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH ON BITCOIN, AND SELECTED FOREIGN EXCHANGES.

Abstract

Cryptocurrency is one of the most discussed topics in today's financial world. Especially with the emergence of Covid-19 pandemic process, it is thought that the increasing digitalization process will affect cryptocurrencies increasingly. Bitcoin is the first and most famous cryptocurrency. It is based on blockchain technology and it is a peer-to-peer digital decentralized cryptocurrency that is not subject to the control of central authorities. This study conducts an analysis to clarify the interaction between Bitcoin prices (in US Dollar), and selected foreign exchange rates using US Dollar prices (in Turkish Lira) and EURO prices (in Turkish Lira) by analyzing causal-effect relationship. Average monthly data is used for the period from August 2010 to June 2020 with a total of 357 obs. Some econometric techniques are used ranging from descriptive analysis, unit root test, regression analysis, cointegration test, vector autoregressive analysis, and granger causality test. This study finds out that USD prices (USDP) move in a negative and significant direction to Bitcoin prices (BTCP), that is, a unit increase in the USDP will lead to decrease in the in BTCP while Euro prices (EURP) influences BTCP in a positive and significant direction, and a unit increase in EURP will lead to an increase in BTCP. According to co-integration test results, it is further revealed that there is no cointegration relationship long-run between Bitcoin price, USD prices, and EURO price. As a result of the Granger causality test conducted, the Bitcoin in the long run, may become a good alternative investment tool for the foreign exchange rates.