Abstract:
The purpose of the study is to highlight the core factors behind the geopolitical
shift in the Eastern Mediterranean explained by the outcome of Turkey‟s exclusion.
Recent studies have showcased absolute profits regional cooperative institutions
would have engendered in the arena, consequently the formation of the East Med
Gas Forum in 2020 is an attempt to conjointly secure the rewards estimated in the
region. Soon, the result led to a sudden rival sequence in the region reflected in the
alignment of major Eastern Mediterranean actors being Greece, Cyprus, Egypt,
Israel, France and Italy to be cognitively entitled to the regional exploration and
extraction of gas resources under the East Med Forum all against Turkey. Study aims
at demystifying the nature of the geopolitical shift through the use of the Stephen
Waltz‟s theory of the Balance of Threat and the Regional Security Complex Theory
(RSC) developed by Burry Buzan, Jaap de Wilde and Ole Wæver. The dissertation
findings defend the idea that Turkey projects a permanent threat to the above mentioned states starting from 2002, subsequent developments in its foreign policy
compiled with its rising economic and military power, left a tremendous impact on
the current ideological targets Turkey defends in the arena. Consequently, Turkey
seems to be targeted by its neighbors and is now exempt from gas exploration and
extraction entitlements other states currently enjoy, which contradicts its geopolitical
interests. In terms of method, the study is qualitative using historical analysis and
case study research, the historical analysis technique is significant to showcase the
relevance of deep-rooted historical ties on the current sudden outcome of Turkey‟s
isolation. Case study aims to testify the applicability of the Balance of Threat Theory
and Regional Security Complex Theory on the exemption outcome using specifically
the embedded case study to include various analysis of foreign policy relations with
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Turkey, being mainly in the present study, Greece, Israel and Egypt. Within this
framework, data is collected from both the primary and secondary sources. Data
from primary sources will be generated from the semi-structured interviews with
political reporters and analytical experts in a face-to face setting, where all interviews
are recorded and transcribed to seek new insights about the topic of relevance and
reach clarity about the findings. Data from secondary sources is collected through the
literature review, which requires document review from articles, press releases,
books, and reports. Quantitative data is collected from secondary sources from books
and articles, numeric characteristics are classified. In data analysis, the study uses
both the content analysis technique to examine the qualitative data collected and
discourse analysis technique to scrutinize the relevant data derived from the
interviews.
